Syria: the sharp end of geo-politics
The toll of human misery continues, increasing by the hour, over three thousand dead, many more seriously wounded, thousands fleeing to Turkey, untold numbers locked up for nothing. Syria is a shit hole that no one would pay to use.
No one knows what to do about Syria. No doubt Assad is a nasty man, barely recognisable as a human, leastways definitely lacking in the humanity department. Just the man to safeguard the interests of his extended family, the middle classes, the business elites and the minority Shia population (who make up most of the army).
No one knows what to do. The US have no levers to pull. The UN can't garner any support from China, Russia or anyone that has influence in the region. Iran supports Assad. And no one in Europe wants to upset Iran, even though they dislike the mullars more than they do Assad. Ask that loser Hague and he'll tell you, we can't have the region being destablized by some kind of intervention - that would be bad for Israel.
In the absence of actually doing anything about the carnage of innocents in Syria, the civilized western democracies will sit down and have a jolly good chat about this nasty business. Then, someone will write a furious letter to that Mr Assad to let him know we are not happy with his performance.
In truth, there's nothing that can be done for the citizens of Syria suffering at the hands of Assad. Parallels with Egypt or Libya don't hold up, there are no cracks in the army, all business interests support Assad, there's not even a glimmer of an organised opposition, no mass grass roots organisation - decades of state repression has neutered dissenting voices.
All a bit hopeless but not surprising. World leaders have not just found out that the Assad family are nasty people, they just ignored it and got on with business. Now, some leaders feel a little bit uncomfortable because Syriaian barbarity puts their uselessness in the headlines. (2017)
Russia in Syria
The history of Russian involvement in Syria goes back to the cold war. Russia provided financial aid to the Assad family and was allowed to open its military navel base in Tartus, giving the Soviets a base in the Middle East.
When the so-called civil war started in the spring of 2011 Russia lent its support to Bashar al-Assad (president since 2000). The Free Syrian Army was created in July 2011 and looked like the vile Assad regime may be facing a real challenge but the opposition floundered in disunity. By 2013, the Arab League were voicing support for opposition forces but little else. In fact, the anti-Assad forces received little support from anyone. By 2014, ISIL were busy claimed a significant part of Syria, this saw a number of Western countries to intervene against the Islamic State. At the same time it became apparent that Chechen were helping ISIL. This gave President Putin the green light to involve Russia in the conflict.
Iran
Britain’s relationship with Iran has a fraught, unedifying history, dating back to the 18th-century imperial tussle between England, Napoleonic France, and tsarist Russia for control of Persia. Iranians have long memories. To this day, they blame the UK for many of their woes.
Britain invaded in 1941 to limit Nazi influence and protect the Anglo-Persian company’s oilfields. In 1953 it intervened again, mounting a coup, with US help, to overthrow a democratically elected government and bolster the rule of the autocratic, pro-western shah.
Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, and US embassy siege, produced a rift that has never fully mended. The US and Iran still have no formal diplomatic ties. Hardliners view the UK’s opulent embassy and gardens in central Tehran as symbols of centuries of national humiliation.
The case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe
Nazanin was detained in Iran from 3 April 2016 as part of a long running dispute between Britain and Iran. In early September 2016, she was sentenced to five years in prison after being found guilty of plotting to topple the Iranian government. While in prison, she went on at least three hunger strikes trying to persuade Iranian authorities to provide medical treatment for her health problems.
In October 2017, the prosecutor general of Tehran made a new claim that she was being held for running "a BBC Persian online journalism course which was aimed at recruiting and training people to spread propaganda against Iran". Nazanin denied the spying charges against her, and her husband maintained that his wife "was imprisoned as leverage for a debt owed by the UK over its failure to deliver tanks to Iran in 1979."
In 2017 Boris Johnson, told a Select Committee she was teaching journalism while she was in Iran. The Iranian regime cited his comments as evidence that she had engaged in “propaganda against the regime”, which she strenuously denies. Her employer, the Thomson Reuters Foundation, said she was simply visiting her family.
On 7 March 2021, her original sentence ended, but she was scheduled to face a second set of charges on 14 March. On 26 April, she was found guilty of propaganda activities against the government and sentenced to another year in prison. She appealed but on 16 October 2021, her appeal was rejected by the Iranian court. Nazanin was finally released on 16 March 2022 immediately after Britain repaid the outstanding debt of £393.8 million to Iran. She returned to the United Kingdom the next day.
Current picture (Jan’ 2023)
Iran executed British-Iranian national Alireza Akbari, accused of spying. The regime, dominated by clerical hardliners, appears increasingly impervious both to quiet diplomacy and more forceful, public measures such as sanctions. Sunak and Cleverly’s ill-judged, culturally insulting condemnation of the regime as “barbaric” will further raise tensions. In truth, Mr Sunak does not know how to deal with the madness of Iran.
What can the government realistically do? It could suspend diplomatic relations and send Iran’s London-based diplomats packing – and probably it should, at least for a while. It can impose yet more sanctions, proscribe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and complain to the UN.
Yet if it truly wants to punish the mullahs, Britain will need American help. A tougher stance will require the US to take a lead. Trouble is, Joe Biden has other worries – and he doesn’t much listen to this government.